Agriculture Investment - The Effect of Rising Incomes on Real Asset Values

As existing populations in developing economies become richer, they shift towards a higher protein, more resource supreme cuisine, and millions of new meat eaters come to the meat annually. This dietary shift is single-minded primarily by rising national incomes. On average annals incomes are forecast to rise by righteous under 300 % from US$ 5, 300 to US$ 16, 000 by 2050 ( Alexandratos, N. World food and agriculture: outlook for the bed and longer term ).

The recent decades of unparalleled global economic expansion, most pronounced in developing and emerging economies, has resulted in the success of a new middle class that has purchasing power beyond their basic needs. In truth, per capita meat consumption in developing countries has doubled since the early 1980s.

Whilst livestock production has historically been supported by grazing and crop / food dissipate, an increasing demand for meat has led the global livestock industry to become increasingly reliant on grain as a primary livestock feed. According to the United States Department of Agriculture ( USDA ), in modern intensive livestock farming where the majority of feed is grain based, 7kg of grain are required to produce one kilogramme of beef ( Fortune Magazine, 2009, As world population expands, the demand for arable land should soar. At least that ' s what George Soros, Lord Rothschild, and other investors believe ).

On a global average basis, given that part of the production is based on other sources of feed, such as grazing land and organic waste, 3 kg of grain is required to produce 1 kg of meat ( FAO, 2006, Livestock ' s long shadow ).

As meat production now depends on grain as a key input, any increase in demand for meat results in an acceleration of demand for arable and grazing land area. At least 35 - 40 % of all cereal produced in 2008 was used as feed for livestock ( FAO, 2006, Livestock ' s long shadow ). This leaves an estimated 43 % of cereal production available for human consumption after losses from harvest, post - harvest and distribution are taken into account.

In percentage terms, the effect of increased income on diets is greatest among lower and middle - income populations which currently consume the lowest percentage of animal products ( Devine. R., 2003, La consommation des produits carns, INRA ).

This indicates great potential for increased meat demand on a global basis given that low - income countries which account for 5. 1 billion of the world ' s population consume less than half as much meat ( as a percentage of dietary energy intake ) as high - income countries which account for only 1. 3 billion of the world ' s population ( FAO, 2008, The state of food insecurity in the world 2008 ).

According to the UN FAO, consumption of animal products per capita in industrialised nations will increase modestly from 825 kcals per person per day today, to just fewer than 900 kcals per person per day by 2050. Yet in East Asia meat consumption is expected to rise from around 400 Kcals per person per day to around 625 Kcals per person per day, an increase of over 56 %. Meat consumption in South Asia meanwhile is expected to double from 200 Kcals to 400Kcals ( Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2006 ).

In summary, this shift towards a protein - based diet will continue to drive farmland investment returns as values continue to increase in the face of exponential growth in demand for soft - commodities.

Agriculture Investments - The Effect of Population Growth on Farmland Investments

It has been duly noted time and again that population growth is a key driver in demand for food and other agricultural wares including feedstock for biofuels and biomass. As demand for lines grows, and supplies do not increases, prices rise and competition for existing produce increases. This bodes well for those in control of productive agricultural land as not individual do incomes from harvesting crops increase, so awfully do does the important value of the land on which they are grown.

In this brief article we will regard at the facts surrounding population growth and the likely impact on the performance of agriculture investments, with particular bias towards farmland as an alternative investment asset class.

Monday 31st October 2011 marked the birth of Danica May Camacho in the Philippines. At 5. 5lbs, Danica May is a tiny person that represents an enormous global milestone as she was chosen by the United Nations to symbolically mark the global population reaching 7 billion people.

In fact, the human population has increased by almost 400 % in the past 100 years alone with a net increase of 225, 000 new people per day during the last decade. Currently, more than 5 % of the total number of people that have ever lived are alive today, and over 1 billion people have been added to the global population in the last 12 years. On current trend, the global population is projected to be roughly 40 % higher than today by 2050 ( UN Population Division, 2007, UN 2006 population revision ).

To put this in perspective, this is the equivalent of adding the total population of Greater London ( 7, 556, 900 people ) to the world ' s headcount every month ( Wikipedia, 2011 ).

Whilst a range of scenarios and population forecasts exist, it is widely agreed that growth in demand for grain will double in the run up to 2050 and that the impact on food prices will be substantial ( UN Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment, 2009, The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises ).

At the same time as demand is increasing, our ability to meet that demand with produce is diminishing every year. Put simply, the vast majority of suitable land is already being cultivated, with very little remaining to expand land under cultivation, and at the same time, soil degradation, urbanisation and water scarcity all combine to prevent further increases in production.

In summary, agriculture investments based on the identification, acquisition and operation of productive agricultural land offers Investors the opportunity to decorrelate a portion of their portfolios from financial markets, and capture both growth and income that is fuelled by undeniable demographic trends rather than the dynamics of financial markets.